As we enter March, the NBA playoffs are just around the corner. While eight teams from each conference will make the postseason, there are plenty of “pretenders” among them, with only a handful of true “contenders.”
The key question to ask when evaluating a team’s championship potential is this: “Can that team’s number one option be the number one option for a championship team?” This is crucial because, dating back to 1987 when Finals MVPs started being recorded, every Finals MVP winner has been a player who was unquestionably the first option for a championship team prior to winning the title, with a few notable exceptions.
Some of these exceptions include Tony Parker in 2007, when Tim Duncan was San Antonio’s first option, and Andre Iguodala in 2015, when Steph Curry was Golden State’s first option. Some argue that Steph Curry was robbed of that award in 2015, but that’s a discussion for another time. Now, looking at NBA teams this season, the answer to that important question is fairly straightforward.
The Contenders
Let’s start with the obvious contenders: Boston and Denver. Both of these teams are the last two champions and have superstars like Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown, and Nikola Jokic, who have proven they can be the first option on a championship run.
Oklahoma City and Los Angeles (Lakers) are the other two teams I believe belong in the contender category.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led OKC to the first seed last season, making them the youngest team in NBA history to achieve that feat. He’s having another MVP-caliber season, and OKC has made significant improvements as a team. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists on highly efficient shooting, including a 43.2% clip from three during last season’s playoff run. He’s certainly proven he can be a number one option for a championship team.
The Los Angeles Lakers have caught fire over the last 25 games, going 18-7 and currently tied for second in the West with Denver. Luka Doncic is still finding his rhythm, and LeBron James is playing some of his best basketball. With LeBron’s extensive playoff history and Doncic’s recent Finals appearance, the Lakers should not be overlooked. Both of them are capable of being the number one option for a championship team.
The Pretenders
The biggest pretender this season is the Cleveland Cavaliers. They remind me of the 2020-2021 Utah Jazz, who went 52-20 and finished first in the Western Conference, led by Donovan Mitchell. The Cavs have won two playoff series in the three years Mitchell has been there, but I just don’t see him as the first option for a championship team. ESPN’s Tim Bontemps doesn’t believe the Cavs’ path to a title involves Mitchell being their best player.
Bontemps stated, “Their path to being a championship-level team is if Donovan Mitchell is their second-best player. That means Evan Mobley has to take a very big leap. I think he has the athletic gifts to do that, but he’s got to get there. We’ll see if Kenny Atkinson can help him do so.”
The last two teams I view as “pretenders” are Memphis and New York, and it should be clear why.
One of my biggest concerns with the New York Knicks is their lack of depth and poor performances against top teams. When the Knicks have faced Boston, Denver, and Oklahoma City this season, they are winless, going 0-7. When I ask myself, “Can Jalen Brunson be the first option for a championship team?” I hesitate. I’m just not confident in Brunson leading a title-contending squad.
As for Memphis, while they’ve had a strong season thus far, sitting at 38-22, they struggle with consistency against top-tier teams and have defensive issues, ranking as one of the weakest defensive teams in the Western Conference. Ja Morant is undoubtedly an All-Star caliber player, but I don’t see him as a number one option for a championship team. Memphis’ roster is built to succeed in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different beast. Last season, the Grizzlies finished 51-31, second in the Western Conference, but were dominated by the seventh-seeded Lakers in the first round. I don’t see Memphis as a true championship threat in the West.
Conclusion
As we near the playoffs, the picture of who will contend and who is simply along for the ride becomes clearer. While teams like Boston, Denver, Oklahoma City, and Los Angeles (Lakers) have proven that their number one options can lead a championship run, teams like Cleveland, Memphis, and New York have a little more work to do before they can be considered legitimate threats.
Time will tell which teams step up in the postseason, but one thing is clear: the road to the Finals starts with the ability of a team’s number one option to lead them there.
