With just under 30 games left on the NBA schedule, it is time to look at the top five teams that I believe have the best chance at winning the NBA Finals this season.

When looking at who has a realistic shot at winning, I tend to look at defensive and offensive ratings.  Since 2010, only two teams that have ranked outside of the top 10 in defensive rating that season have gone on to win the Finals (Golden State in 2018, Denver in 2023).  Also since 2010, only four teams that have ranked outside of the top 10 in offensive rating that season have gone on to win the Finals (Los Angeles in 2010 and 2020, Cleveland in 2016, and Toronto in 2019).  So these stats matter!

 

1. 1. Oklahoma City Thunder (44-9)

The Thunder were the youngest 1st seed in NBA history last season and they only got better.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the way with help from All-Star teammate Jalen Williams.  OKC has the highest NET rating in NBA History up to this point this season (+13.4).  OKC’s defense plays hungry with aggression  and they look ready for that Championship run. 

 

• • OKC currently sits 1st in defensive rating (104.8) and 5th in offensive rating (118.2)

• • They just got Holmgren back, who is one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA

• • Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the NBA with 32.6 points, favorite to win MVP

• • They experienced their first playoff run last season and had a huge offseason additions

 

2. 2. Boston Celtics (39-16)

How could you not have Boston up here?  They are the defending Champs and walked through the playoffs with Porzingis injured.  They have played some sloppy basketball over this past month but they get a pass, the regular season is “boring” as some might say.  Boston is just waiting for the Playoffs to begin because they are tougher than anybody in a 7-game series.

 

• • Boston currently sits 4th in defensive rating (108.2) and 6th in offensive rating (117.2)

• • Tatum is playing at an MVP level, averaging 26.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, Brown playing a nice Robbin role with 22.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4,8 assists

• • Boston has bench depth in Pritchard, Kornet, and Hauser, to go along with one of the best starting lineups in the NBA.  BENCH DEPTH IS HUGE!

 

3. 3. Denver Nuggets (36-19)

Denver was my pick last year to make it out of the Western Conference.  This is the best version of Nikola Jokic that we are witnessing.  The Nuggets are currently 3rd in the West and currently on an 8-game win streak without Rusell Westbrook.  If they can sharpen up their defense, I see it hard for teams to stop Denver.

 

• • Denver currently sits 3rd in offensive rating (120.3) but rank 18th in defensive rating (114.8)

• • In 2023 when Denver won the NBA Finals, they also ranked 18th in the NBA in defensive rating

• • Jokic is averaging 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists this season while Jamal Murray is averaging 26.0 points, 6.7 assists, and 3.8 rebounds in his last 10 games

• • Christian Braun is Denver’s X-factor.  Braun went from averaging 7.3 points and 3.7 rebounds a season ago to 15.0 points and 5.1 rebounds this season

 

4. 4. Cleveland Cavaliers (44-10)

Coming into the season, people expected Cleveland to play competitive basketball and make the playoffs somewhere in the mix.  But nobody, and I mean nobody expected them to take the 1 seed and run with it.  Huge improvements from Darius Garland and Evan Mobley with Donovan Mitchell leading the group makes this team different from a season ago.  Cleveland has been 1st in the Eastern Conference since the season started and are the only team in the East that can give Boston a run for their money.

 

• • Cleveland currently sits 1st in the NBA in offensive rating (122.5) and rank 11th in defensive rating (111.9)

• • Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley were all named All Stars, only team with three

• • Mobley is a potential Defensive Player of The Year candidate, while averaging 18.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks, in his age 23 season

• • -Just traded for De’Andre Hunter from the Atlanta Hawks, who is averaging 18.8 points this season

 

5. 5. New York Knicks (36-18)

The New York Knicks made a nice playoff run last year, making it to game 7 of the second round before falling short to the Indiana Pacers.  It was obvious they needed a second star and they got that in Karl-Anthony Towns when New York traded for him in the offseason.  My only concern for them is their lack of bench depth.  It is a common issue that Tom Thibodeau burns his starters out with the heavy minutes leading to fatigue come playoffs.  Getting Mitchell Robinson back will be important and I could see the Knicks being a dark horse come May.

 

• • New York ranks 4th in offensive rating (118.4) and rank 12th in defensive rating (112.5)

• • Jalen Brunson is averaging 26.1 points and 7.5 assists with Towns averaging 24.7 points and 13.4 rebounds

• • Josh Hart has been the spark plug for New York, averaging 14.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 5,7 assists